This will be the match up come November. The winner will be Obama unless the political machinery, set in place by Republicans many years ago, can manage to once again miscount and switch votes to favor Romney as it happened during Bush vs. Gore in 2000.
Wait a minute, can Republicans manage to thwart the people's choice even if there is a third party candidacy? Probably not if the candidate happens to be Newt Gingrich running as either a tea party candidate or independent. He is the one most likely to continue on his quest for the Presidency, no matter the cost. He will get enough Republicans from the far right that he will split the republican party into two. Remember Perot?
What might re-energizes the Republicans as a party would be a Romney/Santorum candidacy. That way they can have all of their followers in agreement against Obama, which is the main goal, remove Obama at all costs. Then again, picking a VP just to placate a segment of the party has not always worked (McCain-palin) and to an extent (Bush-Quayle).
Obama obviously has not been a Stellar president. He has been rather un-decisive and quick to cow tow to pressure from Republicans. His only saving grace is the disarray that the republicans find themselves in.
Once back in office for a second term he needs to be bold and relentless. He must go down in history not just as the first African American President but also as one who managed to bring back a new era of prosperity for a country full of self doubt and division.